Article at NPR: Why the Pandemic is 10 Times Worse than You Think
TLDR: A research team at Columbia University is using sophisticated models to estimate the total number of people to date who have had covid-19 in the U.S., as opposed to the more commonly-reported number of confirmed infections. Their estimate is 36%.
That is half-way to a reasonable number for the herd immunity threshold. Also, they estimate that the number of daily new infections is around 40% of the peak in late December. Pandemic collapse? I sure hope so, but epidemiologists and numerical modelers have been fooled more than once by this virus. The best we can say is that, for the moment, the numbers are heading the right way.
The above-linked article is short, and filled with caveats that you really need to read. This is no time to let up from being careful, and we all need to get whatever vaccine is available ASAP. However, given the numbers and trends described in the article, the overall news it delivers is quite hopeful. I wonder why the negative, fearful tone used there.
Now I have to say it: Are we there yet?
No comments:
Post a Comment