Where the Hurricane Seasons Are All Above Average

The National Hurricane Center yesterday issued its pre-season extended forecast for 2025, and it's not great but not the end of the world either.  Here's a link to the NHC's announcement, but – spoiler alert – here are the main points:

and the main quote:

The season is expected to be above normal – due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation. 

The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.

Eh, these extra-extended forecasts have a way of being about 40% correct too.  Check back next November.