Helene in NC After One Year

I did a short post with a few pictures, but fortunately it was a near miss for us.  The real story is over at the QRPer blog, with a 'one year after' recap that includes links to all of Thomas's previous posts the storm's aftermath in western North Carolina.  Lots of washed out roads and smashed trees, yes, but also a lot of geeky goodness about using ham radio and running an impromptu solar-powered internet access point for the neighbors.  Good stuff, go read!  (And thank your lucky stars.)

An Almost Perfect Minimalist Under-Saddle Bag

The Lezyne Road Caddy under-saddle bag is perfectly sized for carrying a few keys (not the whole bundle!), a little cash, maybe a credit card, an ID, and not a lot else.  Internally it has a divider for a tiny upper pocket, which holds my door keys and gives a tad more security.  The main bag holds...  just named the items.  It's not a lot, but that's not what this pack is about.  It attaches with velcro to the saddle rails, and is so small that it doesn't need to have a loop around the seat post.  This is just right for daily rides on the gravel bike, especially when I'm wearing a jersey that doesn't have pockets.

The only kick I have with it is that the single zipper pull is a pain to work.  It has to go all the way around to almost the forward side of the pack, so the pull has to be threaded back through the velcro attachment straps.  Look at the picture and you can see where the pull ends up.  Awkward.  A double-pull arrangement meeting at the back would make this pack much easier to use.

Almost perfect.  Close enough.  $25 down at your LBS.

SSTV - Pretty Much There

I've been working with getting fldigi (for digital text) and Black Cat SSTV (for slow-scan TV) working on my desktop Mac, and things are about there now.  Below is a test transmission of the image from the previous blog post along with the original image.  Quality is poor, but that's only because of the crappy S/N ratio: I'm transmitting 2.5w from my QRP radio into a dummy load on my desktop machine, and listening to the leakage on my main HF set-up.  Not much power is getting through all that, but it's enough to confirm that things are working.  Possibly more importantly, it's not enough power to fry my main HF rig's input circuits.  That is a consideration when intercontinental-range radios are being used in adjacent rooms.

Anyway, here's a transmitted test image:

you may need to squint

and the original:

SSTV has been a long-term goal (see two posts from 2017: Getting There and Working Out the Fiddly Parts), and other than becoming proficient with the user interface, I'm pretty much there now.  It is handy though to have an FT-817nd and a dummy load on the desk while figuring out all the bells and whistles at my leisure – and not bothering anyone else while fumbling around.

Straggler - One Month Review & Commentary

One month along with the new Surly Straggler and I'm still digging it.  The initial comments (with picture!) from last month still hold.  The further comments I can make are:

• pro: I really like the 1x11 SRAM Apex drivetrain.  And everything else.  Almost.
• con: It's been a little bit of a struggle to keep the disc brakes in alignment, between the comfy-but-flexy steel frame, pain-in-the-ass horizontal rear drop-out, and quick-release axles.  I've finally got it dialed, but this bike could really benefit from having thru-axle dropouts and hubs.

So here, a month after getting mine, Surly updates the bike for the first time in its 10 year run, and what does the new version have?

Thru-axles.

It now comes in two component levels, which are a $300 and an $800 price jump up from mine.  The older version is still available, but if you're looking, go with the new.  The thru-axles alone are worth the price jump, though there are some other nice upgrades and improvements to the geometry as well.

Anyway, here's a review at Singletracks online magazine, here's the new Straggler page (with links to the two versions from there), and a link to the old (*sigh*) Straggler page.

Thru-axles.  Straggler shoulda had 'em years ago.  But I will get by.

More 70's than Jimmy Carter on a Moped

My copy of 1973's Buckingham Nicks arrived today, and after two listens through it's pretty good and about what I expected.  That is to say, it is very much in the mode of the eponymous 1975 Fleetwood Mac album, but more country-ish guitar driven and of course missing all the touches the rest of Fleetwood Mac brought to that album.  Fans will immediately recognize the one song that was later re-recorded by the full band, and there are a number of guitar moves that were recognizably recycled later on as well.  The whole feel though is that of an early-mid 70's artifact.  For example, Without A Leg To Stand On has a real Cat Stevens vibe.

Here, have a real review by a real reviewer at Louder Sound.

Hey, if you like it you like it, and I like it.  After years of hearing snips and scraps of the album on various nooks of the internet, it's great to have the entire thing in hand.

Not Really Fall Yet

Even though today's the fall equinox, it's not really feeling like fall just yet.  Nor is the extended forecast all that promising:

Eh, we'll see.  In the meantime, preparations for fall fun continue:

• new gravel bike, pretty well tuned in now – check
• hiking clothes coated in permethrin and air-dried – check
• next up: getting radios dialed in for trail fun; more on this as events unfold – in progress

Onward, and back to work.

Coffeeneuring for 2025?

Starts October 11th.  This fall is not quite so crazy as '22, '23, or '24 (so far) so this might actually happen here this year.  Or not.  Details at Chasing Mailboxes.  More, and commentary on the matter later.

Sentience, Self-Awareness, and All That

Last month I listened to Nicholas Humphrey's interview on the Jim Rutt Podcast, and it was a real eye-opener.  So much so that I ran out and got a copy of Humphrey's book Sentience, read it, then listened to the podcast episode again.

Initially what captured my interest was the phenomenon of blindsight, where someone has lost the conscious ability to see due to brain damage, yet retains some vestige of vision at an unconscious level.  Here's a short video clip of a test subject, sans visual cortex due to stroke or injury, successfully navigating down an obstacle-filled hallway.  After such tests subjects often insist that they simply walked down the hall, having no conscious memory of dodging around objects.

This and other similar observations have led Humphrey to surmise that humans along several other candidate species have the capacity for conscious sensation layered onto a more primitive unconscious perception.  This follows naturally into some ideas about the meaning of self, others, and what is commonly termed theory of mind.  I won't further belabor the ideas, but simply refer you to the above-linked podcast for a much better brief introduction.

BTW & because someone's gonna ask: LLMs, conscious or not?  No, none, not at all.  Barely touched on, not even under consideration here.

One rough patch in this material is the lack of a brief glossary.  Humphrey and Rutt bemoan in the podcast how most conferences on these topics spend the first half simply trying to define the terms they're using.   Rutt mentions that he's now on the board of the California Institute for Machine Consciousness; go dig around at that site, maybe you'll find something glossary-ish.  Or perhaps keep a notepad at hand while reading in order to assemble a DIY glossary.  When I get around to a re-read, I'll do just that.

Anyway, they're making good progress, getting much farther than the old Turing Test, Chinese Room scenario, and those sorts of things.  Interesting stuff.  I won't even begin to publicly speculate if or how this bears on numerous observer-centric problems in physics, such as the measurement problem.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if Humphrey's lines of research ultimately converge there as well.

Flat Tire Wednesday

Grr.  And on the new gravel bike too.  Just one of those little thorns that causes a slow leak.  You finish the ride, but overnight it leaks down and the next time you go to ride you get a flat surprise.

While patching I took a little time and installed an ancient set of Spinskins.  On the old gravel bike these reduced the flat rate from one every two weeks to one every decade or so.  (YMMV)  Too bad they're not made anymore.  However, looks like Panaracer is making something comparable, so if these poop out I'll pop for a set.

Or maybe just convert to tubeless.  Honestly for these little thorn-pricks, tubeless + sealant gives effortless protection on the mountain bike.  Damned mess though if you get a real slash.  Let's see how this goes.

BTW, wicked thorn.  Presta valve cap shown for reference, and those grid squares on the workbench are 1/2".

ps: Nah, my bike came with the cheaper wire-bead Knards.  Not tubeless ready.  Maybe next round of tires.

New Statue of Franklin for Franklin County

In the sheltered north-west nook between the main building and the massive front stairs on the Franklin County Court House (a definite consideration here in hurricane country), a new statue of Benjamin Franklin was dedicated today by Gov. Ron DeSantis.  Full Story at WOYS's blog, but similar statues of the Founding Fathers are being dedicated all over Florida in counties with corresponding names: yes, Franklin, and also Jefferson, Washington, Hamilton, Madison, and Monroe Counties as well.

Walking around the statue this evening, it's well done.  Seemingly life-size and more or less at ground level, it gives the impression of standing in front of the actual man.  Though I must say, I vastly prefer my picture (inset; click to embiggen) to the one at WOYS.  Click through and compare for yourself.

An Interesting Little Collection of Heinlein Short Stories

Last Friday over at viewfromtheporch, Tam posted a sexy pic of Sally Rand's 1938 Packard along with a link to a collection of Heinlein's short stories which has some peripheral connection to said car.  I clicked through and discovered – for the deep bargain price of $0.99 – eleven stories I'd already read and four that I hadn't!  Specifically, these are:

• Let There Be Light, about the invention of the Douglas-Martin sunscreens that figure so prominently in RAH's Future History series.  Glad to finally read it, but I can see why he omitted it from various short story collections throughout his later life.  Being his second story published, it's just not all that good.
• The Year of the Jackpot, another stinkeroo, as Heinlein termed his early fumbling works.  Still, it has some interesting ideas about what would happen if a mathematician devised a way to predict the future.  SHGT anyone?
• Project Nightmare, an early Cold War thriller about a hastily concocted team of psychics staving off nuclear blackmail – if they can just keep from falling asleep.
• Sky Lift, in which a pair of pilots give their all to deliver vital medical supplies – to Pluto.

I can vouch for the remainder of the stories.  Because they're better than the four listed, they've shown up in various other collections, most of which are on my living room shelf.  Click through to the above link and click through to Amazon for the complete list, or to buy, in which case Tam gets her affiliate cut.

Now about the publisher and illustrations, I'm not so sure.  Most of the stories seem to be from the late 30's to about 1950, so maybe the copyright has timed out?  Don't ask me, I'm not a lawyer.  The publisher and copyright are both from Ukraine, which is slightly suspect.  The illustrations are few, probably machine-generated, and don't really add much.  Maybe those are a copyright fig leaf?  Again, not a lawyer.  Will Heinlein or his spouse miss out on any royalty payments because of these (possible) shenanigans?  Pfft, they've been dead 37 and 23 years respectively, so that's not a concern.  I like to think that they'd just be glad to see some early works getting a little more airplay.  Let the dead sleep and the living read.  Onward.

Overall and despite those concerns, I'm glad to have finally read these, especially Let There Be Light.  The Douglas-Martin sunscreens are in so many of Heinlein's Future History stories that not having read this always felt like a big hole in my literary knowledge.  Turns out it wasn't, but for $0.99 the itch has been scratched.

Weirdness Gap Filled

Last spring I lamented about how the late night paranormal radio show Coast to Coast was difficult to receive here on the Forgotten Coast.  The three closest AM stations broadcasting it are 450, 590, and 800 miles away, making skywave reception doable but unreliable, and we fall into an unfortunate gap in the line-of-sight FM coverage.  Well good news, WSB Atlanta has now picked up C2C.  At a mere 290 miles distance, the reception is much better.  You can tell it's skywave propagation, but it never quite drops out.

Life – and judging by some of the guests, possibly the afterlife – just took a turn for the better.

From Nashville to Apalach

I see that Mark Wills will be on the Grand Ol Opry both tonight (Friday) and tomorrow.  You can listen on WSM 650 AM or figure it out for online.  I'm sure it'll be for just a couple of songs.  Then, he'll be the headliner at the Seafood Festival on Saturday Nov. 1st.  See y'all there.

Telegram?

No, not the app.  Actual, you know, telegrams.  Hard to believe, but they still exist and you can still send them.  Weirdly, there is a legal reason in certain cases why you might, namely to leave an official record for later legal reference.  Anyway, here's an old article at Atlas Obscura, and the actual

send-a-telegram web site.  Prices start at $30, so if you get a message at all from me it'll probably be a text or email.

No real tag for this one, but because Morse code is peripherally connected, so I'll file it under 'radio'.

Eggbeater Pedal Rebuild Saturday

Yesterday it was time to tackle a pair of Eggbeater 2's gone wrong after just two years' use and a nice four year old pair of Mallet 3's that were crying out for some TLC.  It wasn't particularly difficult, but the first one took a little while with flipping back and forth through videos.  Set aside some serious time for each pair of pedals.  Figure on about an hour for a pair, but have an open schedule for up to two hours in case something goes awry.  Also, you'll need a rebuild parts kit for each pair of pedals.

How?  Oh hell no, I'm not going to tell you how here.  I'm just going to link through to a couple of videos for each variety.  Required tools are also detailed in each video.  You'll want to have those rounded up before beginning along with lots and lots of paper towels.

• Eggbeaters: factory vid | some bike shop guy
• Mallets: factory vid | Park Tool vid

They all move kind of fast and take slightly different routes, so whichever model you're overhauling it's worthwhile to watch both videos.

The bottom line is that this exercise resurrected about $250 worth of pedals for $60 in parts plus a couple hours' semi-interesting work.  I can think of worse and less profitable ways to spend a chunk of a Saturday afternoon.

ps & Follow Up, 9/10: After several test rides of both pedal sets, all is functioning very smoothy.  However, thinking on the economics of this, if you're running the bottom-end Eggbeater 1's, it may make more sense to just replace a worn set.  Odds are that if a set of pedals need replacing,  you'll need new cleats too.  Digging around on ModernBike.com I see that a pair of Egg 1's goes for $54.  Compare with a refresh kit and new set of cleats – $30 and $25 respectively – and the price is a wash.  Of course, it pains to throw out when a rebuild will do; doing so reeks of wretched excess.  Hey, your Saturday afternoon, your call.

Gravel On The Block

With the new Surly Straggler well in hand, it's time to put the 2010 Specialized Tricross up for sale.  $338 bike + $315 in parts = $500 cash, firm.  You can see full details here at craigslist.

55cm / Medium, in Very Good shape

I had intended to keep this bike for a good while more – hence all the parts.  But what I'm doing on a gravel bike these days is closer to mountain biking and these old hip and knee joints aren't getting any younger.  Anyway, I hate to see it go, but an unridden bike is a sad horse.  Time to move it on down the line.

If you're reading this, you know how to reach me.

Punctuated Equilibrium Seems to be the Way of Things

Here's a short article about punctuated equilibrium in biological systems, proteins, and (surprise!) languages at Quanta.

I was very surprised to see PE arising in some genetic algorithm work I was doing several decades ago on systems that were entirely non-biological.  I simply remarked on it in the resulting paper and moved on with the main thrust of that research.  Still, the waves of evolution in this system did show significant regularity and could be useful in determining when some point of diminishing return has been reached, and hence when to stop burning computer cycles.

Looking around on the web using an AI search quickly showed that this has been observed many times before:

Give me a list of research showing punctuated equilibrium in genetic algorithm simulations of non-biological systems.

Here is a list of relevant research papers that demonstrate or analyze punctuated equilibrium (periods of stasis followed by rapid changes) in genetic algorithm (GA) simulations applied to non-biological systems, such as abstract optimization problems, engineering tasks, or artificial life models. I've focused on studies where the systems are clearly non-biological (e.g., not direct simulations of real biological processes like speciation or genetic drift in organisms). Each entry includes the title, authors, year, a brief description of the GA and system, and how punctuated equilibrium is shown. The list is chronological.

• Punctuated Equilibria in Genetic Search by Michael D. Vose and Gunar E. Liepins (1991). This paper formalizes a simple GA with selection, mutation, and one-point crossover, applied to non-biological search spaces modeled as high-dimensional dynamical systems. Simulations and mathematical analysis show punctuated equilibrium through alternating periods of relative stability (attractors) and sudden rapid evolution when populations shift between basins, supported by eigenvalue computations and trajectory diagrams.
• Genetic Algorithms and Punctuated Equilibria in VLSI by J. P. Cohoon, W. N. Martin, and D. S. Richards (1991). A distributed GA with subpopulation structures is used for the K-partition problem in VLSI (Very Large Scale Integration) chip design, a non-biological engineering optimization task. The approach is inspired by punctuated equilibrium theory, with empirical simulations demonstrating performance advantages from "ecological opportunities" that enable rapid evolutionary bursts after periods of stasis.
• Population-Based Incremental Learning: A Study on Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing by Shumeet Baluja (1994). This work uses Population-Based Incremental Learning (an extension of equilibrium GAs) compared to standard GAs on non-biological optimization problems like numerical functions (e.g., De Jong’s, Griewangk’s), NP-complete tasks (e.g., jobshop scheduling, traveling salesman), and deceptive problems. It demonstrates punctuated equilibrium in parallel GA variants with subpopulations, where stasis in isolated groups is interrupted by migrations leading to rapid improvements, shown via a contrived example where single-population GAs fail but multi-population ones succeed.
• Punctuated Equilibria in Simple Genetic Algorithms for Functions of Unitation by Sangyeop Oh and Hyunsoo Yoon (2000). A simple GA with roulette wheel selection, mutation, and crossover is simulated on non-biological unitation functions (bit-string optimization in bistable potential landscapes). Theoretical analysis via diffusion equations and simulations reveal punctuated equilibrium, with long metastable periods at local optima followed by exponential-duration sudden jumps to global optima, visualized in population mean trajectories and parameter-dependent duration plots.
• Punctuation Equilibrium and Optimization: An A-Life Model by Ravi Jonnal and Anthony Chemero (2000). An evolutionary algorithm evolves artificial neural network weights for controlling a virtual creature in a 2D grid-based simulated environment with resources and obstacles (non-biological artificial life setup). Simulations compare standard and punctuated mutation rates, showing that introducing rare bursts of higher mutation leads to punctuated equilibrium patterns—long stasis interrupted by rapid fitness gains—resulting in significantly higher overall fitness scores.
• Punctuated Equilibrium and Neutral Networks in Genetic Algorithms by David Shorten and Geoff Nitschke (2022). A simple GA is applied to non-biological benchmark optimization functions (11 numerical ones plus Royal Road and Trap functions). Empirical simulations demonstrate punctuated equilibrium as populations explore neutral networks (genotype spaces with stable phenotypes), leading to periods of phenotypic stasis followed by rapid changes when escaping to fitter regions, analyzed via consensus sequences and genotype-phenotype

Huh.  Effect noted, explained, harnessed.  I wish search engines had been this effective in 2007.  Back to and onward with my real work.