This Explains So Much

Over at SMBC.

It also goes a long way towards explaining why we now have string theory and techno-pop.

Kessler... Maybe?

A couple of years ago I posted a little piece on the Kessler Syndrome here (includes a brief discussion one the topic at hand, if you need a reminder), and the bottom line was "yeah, don't worry about it – yet."

Now Kessler and a co-author have recently revisited the topic, and their results are not so sunny.  You can read the abstract and download the paper here, or listen to Sabine Hossenfelder's take on the matter here.  It's going to be interesting to see this one batted around over the next few years.  With such wildly divergent results, there's going to be a good academic catfight.

My advice: Enjoy your Starlink while you can, but brush up on your HF skills too.  And if it comes to it, enjoy the light show.

Protip: Never exceed any limit labeled "Runaway Threshold."  Don't, just don't.

New GP-15 Antenna and The Undead GP-1

During some testing a couple of weeks ago, it became clear that something was up with my trusty old Comet GP-1 VHF/UHF antenna.  The SWR was way off, a little above 3:1 in the 2m and 70cm bands, which is to say that, rather than radiating RF energy, a lot of it was being bounced back into my transceiver and getting turned into heat.[1]

Now, I'd had my eyes on an antenna that would add the 6m band as well[2], and the Comet GP-15 checked all those boxes, as well as adding about 3 dB more gain on 2m and 70cm.  The only real downsides are at 8 feet length it's twice as long as that discrete little GP-1, and it has a somewhat lower wind speed rating, 112 vs. 135 mph.  That lower wind speed rating turns matters from "set it and forget it" to "another item on the hurricane checklist to bring inside."

The GP-15 is kind of an odd antenna.  It relies on one extra-long, tunable radial (see inset pic) to adjust its resonant frequency.  The instructions have a helpful chart showing radial length setting vs. resonant frequency.  I'm really only interested in the 50 to 51 MHz part of the band, where the SSB voice, various beacons, and allegedly some digital traffic hangs out.  (see chart linked below)  The rest of the band, 51 thru 54 MHz, is primarily set aside for repeaters and local FM use.  Not so interesting where there are no local repeaters or users.  Also, the instruction sheet flatly indicates that it has a useable bandwidth of 1 MHz, so choose which quarter of the band allocation you want wisely.  Accordingly, I set things up while still on the ground for my region of interest, mounted it on the roof[3] and.... it was resonant smack in the middle of the band, useable across the entire 4 MHz of the band.[4]  So I tweaked it a little lower to optimize for my interests and called it a day.

Still haven't gotten any 6m band openings[5], but in the wake of the cold front currently blowing through, some tropoducting is in the cards for early next week.  Contacts on 2m & 70cm however report that my signal is much stronger, so there is that. 

Finally, with the new antenna installed, it was time to dig into what went wrong with the 5 year old GP-1 and that 15 year old length of LMR-400 coax.  On the bench both tested out as working perfectly, so your guess is as good as mine.  Maybe I'll have something to sell on the Monday night net, though I'll test them all again before trying to offload them.

Anyway, here's a link to a good set of pdf charts showing what's where on the commonly used VHF & UHF ham bands.  Get your GP-15 (or GP-1, or any number of other interesting and useful items) here.

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[1] No wonder the fan was running so much!  I could barely get through a Monday evening net session without it topping 140 degrees.

[2] Why?  Because it's there, that's why!  Stop asking foolish questions.

[3] A process akin to conducting an EVA on the ISS.

[4] Yes, of course I hauled an SWR meter and LiFePO4 battery up on the roof with me, along with many other potentially useful items – wrenches, vice-grips, multi-tool, drill & driver bits, etc.  And of course an FRS radio to stay in contact with my safety man on the ground.

[5] and hence no contacts, though there is one guy over in Carrabelle who can do 6m I ought to call.

Conspiracy of the Week: Gravel bikes were invented to convert roadies into mountain bikers

Presented in a short, amusing editorial over at Singletracks online mag.

I haven't noticed, personally, any pelotons of roadies streaming up and down my local gravel trails, but you never know what February will bring.

On the State of Particle Physics

Quanta online asks Is Particle Physics Dead, Dying, or Just Hard?

It's a real quandary, and the author explores all corners of the problem in an even-handed manner.  TLDR: On one hand, (a) the Higgs boson has been found and all the slots in the Standard Model's chart have been nicely filled, (b) the super-symmetric particles that were sort-of predicted at LHC energies simply weren't found, and (c) there are no firm theoretical predictions that we'll actually find anything else of interest at higher energies.  On the second hand, damn the torpedos, build the next generation accelerator and go look at what's out there at higher energies, because you can't know until you look.  On the third hand (see, I've just finished re-reading Project Hail Mary and one of the main characters has five hands; I could keep this up for a little while longer), that $22 billion has to come from somewhere, and we all know without even guessing that that money's going to come out of the rest of science.  Do we shut down other more promising programs just to go have a look "because you never know"?

Feel free to comment, but only after you've read the above-linked article, and then read Lost in Math for a chaser.

Finally this popped up yesterday as well (coincidence?  probably not):

Nasty, but also funny and on the nose.

Owl Cafe Sold

Article at The Times.  Key quote:

"The locals are the backbone of a restaurant like this,” Carruth said. “Yes, it’s a heavy tourist market, but it has to start taking care of locals first. This is the only restaurant (of ours) that is literally entrenched in a community as the Owl is. It’s heavily dependent on the trust and support of locals here."

Seems very likely a change for the better, in many ways.

What's Up With Surly?

A friend commented on the brand of the gravel bike I ride, in sort of a WTF? way.  So... here ya go:

Hey it's not definitive or anything, they get some minor stuff wrong, but pfft.  Close enough.

Also, the Bike Filth youtube channel is interesting in a sort of maybe grassroots way.  I appreciate the shorter five-minute-ish format, punk rock intro, and all the mud.