Sabine Hossenfelder digs into the somewhat recent, somewhat mysterious disappearance of scientists and a few scientist-adjacent people. (8 minutes for the analysis, followed by a 2 minute ad) TLDW: Mostly explainable, but the overall rate is about four times what one might expect in the general population, which is statistically slightly alarming.
Here's a short summary of my thoughts on the matter:
- There's a significant subset of scientists who have a taste for outdoor adventure, so expect a higher disappearance rate there.
- What's more, there's also another subset of scientists who will dive into adventures somewhat blindly, so expect trouble there as well. Usually they morph over time into the previously mentioned subset – if they survive the learning curve.
- Personally, over the years I've stumbled across a handful of things that could have been trouble: a probable pot farm, a fresh murder scene, a few awkwardly placed rattlesnakes, a couple of unoccupied hobo camps, etc. Any of these could have been trouble had my GTFO circuits not overridden my curiosity. I know some people, especially in Subset #2, who do not have such highly attuned GTFO circuits.
- The relatively low number of missing persons here can account for large statistical fluctuations. Along with numerous cases of weak GTFO wiring, this is probably enough to account for the observed 4x disappearance rate.
- But yeah, Hossenfelder's about right on the matter. The numbers are a little high but not badly out of line with general expectations.
Beyond that and on a personal note, I don't expect to disappear anytime soon. Some may be comforted by this, others may be a tad disappointed. Comment below.